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The historic Ashes series could provide a reason to cheer, but this contest will also see the Aussie side host a greater number of birthdays than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day prior to the squad was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Ageing Team Fascination Builds

For two or three years there has been mounting curiosity with the average age of this team and especially the bowling attack. It is unusual to have nearly all player near a Test side being above thirty, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a disadvantage: a Test squad boasting a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are deep into their professional lives.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Younger bowlers have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Change Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any side knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a group of simultaneous departures, but so far change has remained theoretical: a process that would certainly be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, change is upon them, forced upon this Aussie team in the space of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only sit out the first Test, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the team balance experiences a far greater shift with two players absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the side. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Tests coming on after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, partly English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the field on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

Sign up to The Spin

Who knows, it might all go smoothly for this new attack. It might not. What is notable is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. Who knows what new injuries the opening match may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be good to go for Brisbane, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how complicated stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of going down early in tournaments and a pattern of initially small injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Outlook Unclear

The latter part of the contest may see the main four bowlers reunited and all performing well. Or it might see transition setting in much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a excellent pink-ball Brisbane choice, but after that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm repaired, and this level is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the real unknown, and amid it all a chance for the opposing side. You can hear that change approaching, rolling round the corner, and the English team hasn't seen the success since they can't recall when.