🔗 Share this article

The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although experts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.